My Oscar Predictions

Regardless of your opinions on the Oscars, the Academy and awards ceremonies in general, there’s no doubt that 2012 has been a pretty brilliant year for film. We had a superb array of summer blockbusters that filled theaters and broke box office records everywhere. We were treated to the best Bond film in years in what is the spy’s 50th anniversary. Directors went above and beyond, specifically in terms of visuals as film makers continue to grapple with the digital vs film argument. This year's Oscar nominations did not surprise me, and I can safely say I enjoyed most of the films on the list, as opposed to 2011s forgettable nominations. It was also nice to see a couple of surprises with Beasts Of The Southern Wild getting 4 nods, continued support of independent cinema by the industry is a must, and despite the continued ignorance of audience favorites (Looper, The Dark Knight Rises, The Avengers, Ted), the recognition for Beasts and the singular nod for Moonrise Kingdom gives me some hope. So without further a-due, here are my predictions for the 85th Academy Awards:  

Best Film: Argo

If you’d asked me who would have won Best Film before the Golden Globes I would have told you Lincoln, but after Affleck and co sweeping the Globes, Screen Actors Guild Awards and the BAFTAs then I'm going to assume that Argo will win this category. Plus the added snubbing of Affleck in the Best Director category will go in the film’s favour. I still wouldn’t rule out Lincoln winning it, or indeed Zero Dark Thirty, Silver Linings Playbook, Life of Pi or Les Miserables, they all still have solid chances, but after post-Globes buzz, Argo stands the strongest chance. I doubt Amour will win as it is more than likely to win in the Best Foreign Film category, its nomination is nothing more than recognition. If it were up to me I’d give the award to Beasts Of the Southern Wild or Django Unchained, both two of my favorite films in 2012, but Django stands an outside chance at best and Beasts’ nomination is much for the same reason as Amour’s inclusion. That doesn’t mean Argo is more than a worthy winner, it was brilliantly suspenseful and thrilling, and deserves all the plaudits it gets. 

Best Director: David O’ Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)

This category is much more tricky. Had Affleck been nominated he would have been firm favorite, but in his absence it makes this category much more interesting. While many will view O’Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) as an outsider here, with Spielberg (Lincoln) and Michael Haneke (Amour) favourites on the list, I’m gunning for O’Russell. Maybe it’s more hope than logic but the Academy throws out a few surprises each year and I’d like to think they’ll dole one out for Best Director. Life Of Pi seems to have lost ground over the last couple of months, so I’m doubting Ang Lee will be walking out with this award while debut director Benh Zeitlin (Beasts Of The Southern Wild), undeservedly may I add, is unlikely to win. 

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)

The firm favourite! This award is essentially wrapped up, with Day-Lewis a guarantee to take the award home to give the Lincoln actor a third record breaking Best Actor Oscar. His portrayal of the 16th President was nothing short of flawless, an intimate, stirring and charming performance. That’s not to say the other actors on the list aren’t deserving of credit, Hugh Jackman’s Jean Valjean in Les Miserables was terrific, and easily one of Jackman’s best performances in years. Joaquin Phoenix was disturbingly electric in The Master, and would also very much deserve the award, while I felt Bradley Cooper’s Silver Lining’s Playbook performance never really dazzled, and would have preferred to have a more deserving actor on this list. However with the Academy’s affinity for patriotic period movies and a clearly incredible performance by Day-Lewis, this category is a dead cert. 

Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)

Again, this category is quite open with both the oldest Best Actress nomination ever (Emmanuelle Riva) and the youngest (Quvenzhane Wallis) competing against each other. While Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) won the Golden Globe, Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) won the BAFTA, with Lawrence still somehow remaining the favourite throughout. Many people feel Riva very much deserves the Oscar, she is 85 and has been acting for over sixty years, and her Amour performance is beautiful, supporters of Riva will also say Lawrence, 22, still has many years ahead to win awards. Despite Riva’s incredible career, I still feel the Academy will go with Lawrence, whose Silver Lining’s Playbook performance is just as deserving of awards as Riva. I’d still love it if Jessica Chastain won, she had one of the best performances of 2012 in Zero Dark Thirty, playing an intelligent, determined CIA operative on the hunt for Bin Laden, but she seems to have slipped as favourite, don’t be surprised if she walks away with the award though. Beasts actress Quvenzhane Wallis who at only 9 years old has deservedly earned herself a nod, will almost certainly not win. At 9 years old there would be no point putting pressure on a career that has barely even begun by handing her an Oscar, it’s nice that she’s been recognized though. 

Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

Probably the most interesting category! All five actors have won Oscars before, none have anything to prove, so it’s very wide open. So I suppose my prediction here is very much less influenced by Academy politics, and based purely on performance, in which case I’d give it to Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln). If it weren’t for Day-Lewis, Lee Jones would have stolen the film in an honest portrayal of Republican radical Thaddeus Stevens. Alan Arkin was hilarious as ever in Argo, Christopher Waltz his usual playful self in Django Unchained, Phillip Seymour Hoffman was terrific in The Master and Robert DeNiro gave a heartfelt if not sometimes all to similar performance in Silver Lining’s Playbook. However Waltz won this same award back in 2009 for Tarantino’s Inglorious Bastards so it would have appeared Waltz wasn’t the favourite but with his win at the BAFTAs 2 weeks ago it remains to be seen that he could still walk away with the award. If there was any justice Leonardo DiCaprio would have been nominated in this category, he was everything from charming to brutal to manic in Django Unchained, but sadly this is not the case. Either way, my money’s on Tommy Lee Jones, but expect anyone to walk away with the award in this category. 

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) 

Another award already tied up. This seems to have been a guarantee for months, having brought most cinema goers to their knees in tears with her portrayal of Fantine in Les Miserables. It is a compelling and emotionally draining performance by the actress, and the award will continue to cement Hathaway as one of the Hollywood’s current best. Elsewhere in the category Sally Field was brilliant as Mary Todd Lincoln in Lincoln and you’d think if there was a 2nd place award she’d almost certainly win it, while Amy Adams was awkwardly brilliant in The Master playing the deluded wife of cult leader Lancaster Dodd (Phillip Seymour Hoffman). They’ve probably all started practicing their losing faces though, while Hathaway must have her ‘oh wow I've won I'm so surprised’ look nailed by now. 

Best Adapted Screenplay: Argo (Written by Chris Terrio) 

I think this category could be very much a toss up between Argo and Lincoln (written by 

Tony Kushner). Kushner was the favourite in this category but Terrio’s Argo reigned supreme at the Writer’s Guild Awards last week, and if Argo wins Best Film expect the Academy to give Terrio the nod.

Best Original Screenplay: Django Unchained (Written by Quentin Tarantino)

It would be lovely to see the Academy give Django Best Film but that probably isn’t going to happen, but it stands a very decent chance in this category. Although its main competition is probably Michael Haneke’s Amour and Mark Boal’s Zero Dark Thirty. Given the controversy over Boal’s script I’d say it has lost ground with Haneke’s Amour sneakily becoming the top favourite along with Tarantino’s Django. Tarantino is not particularly an Academy favourite so don’t be surprised if Haneke sneaks the award. Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola’s Moonrise Kingdom are also up for this award having been snubbed in every other category. In an ideal world Moonrise Kingdom would win, but this is not an ideal world, and Wes Anderson’s beautiful young love story won’t get the recognition it deserves. 

Foreign Language Film : Amour

Animated Film: Brave

Cinematography: Life Of Pi

Documentary Feature: Searching for Sugar Man

Editing: Life Of Pi

Music (Original Song): Skyfall by Adele

Visual Effects: Life Of Pi

Well they’re my predictions for most of the categories, expect Life Of Pi to run away with the technical awards, while Amour is also a certainty for Foreign Language Film. 

 Let’s hope 2013 will be another great year for film.

Lincoln Review

Spielberg has created a sublimely triumphant masterpiece, while Daniel Day-Lewis brings us an utterly unparalleled performance of calm bravery and intimate charm

Having recently been named the most portrayed American President in screen history, Steven Spielberg has sought to breathe life into an adaptation of the 16th President's life, bringing us the intelligent and moving Lincoln. The film zooms in on one particular era of Lincoln's presidency, specifically the time around the end of the Civil War, and his push to get the 13th amendment signed into law. Spielberg originally bought the rights to the film back in 2001, while Liam Neeson was originally cast as honest Abe. Yet due to difficulties the film suffered delays, with Neeson eventually leaving the project in 2010, citing that he was too old for the part.

Thankfully, Daniel Day-Lewis was cast as the leading man, in an astonishing performance that is a shoe in for the Best Actor award at the Oscars later this February. Sally Field plays his wife, Mary Todd Lincoln, while Tommy Lee Jones plays the republican radical and supporter of full racial equality, Thaddeus Stevens. The film also stars Joseph Gordon Levitt as Lincoln's son, David Strathairn plays Secretary of State William H. Seward, Lee Pace as the fiery democrat Fernando Wood among others in an excellent supporting cast.

As mentioned above, the films focuses on Lincoln's struggle to pass the 13th Amendment, which would finally abolish slavery in America, this is set to the backdrop of the American Civil War, as the North and South wage war against each other. Lincoln is concerned that his 1863 Emancipation Proclamation act would be ill favoured by the courts once the war is over, and with the end of the war in sight, Lincoln wants to push through the legislation to ensure freed slaves don't become re-enslaved. But, pushing through the act is not that easy, with the more conservative Republicans unwilling to give their support as well as most Democrats outright opposing it. Lincoln strikes a deal with conservative Republican Francis Preston Blair (Hal Holbrook), Blair will support the 13th amendment as long as he can start to negotiate a peace treaty with the crumbling Confederacy and bring an end to the Civil War, Lincoln reluctantly agrees.

This is not the only stumbling block though, as Secretary of State William Seward (Strathairn) begins to work on gaining the necessary Democratic votes to push through the legislation, he gathers lobbyists William Bilbo (James Spader), Robert Latham (John Hawkes) and Richard Schell (Tim Nelson) to pursue moderate Democrats who may be persuaded into a yes vote. As well as this, Lincoln has family issues, with his unwillingness to allow his son, Robert (Gordon-Levitt) join the army affect their relationship, as well as problems with his wife Mary (Sally Field) over the death of one of their sons.

Lincoln's push for the amendent is also hindered by Thaddeus Stevens' (Tommy Lee Jones) support for full racial equality, a radical view at the time. Stevens eventually moderates his views to persuade teetering Democrats, and the act is eventually passed, with the war ending soon after. The film ends with Lincoln's assassination, and a flashback to his inspirational second inaugural address.

Spielberg's direction of Lincoln is superb, in terms of vision and style it is everything you expect, from the beautiful lighting to the brilliant and accurate sets and costumes, this war torn 19th century America is vividly re created in Lincoln. Spielberg's adaptation is surprisingly neither over emotive or overly patriotic, unlike so many of his other films Spielberg has been able to leave some sentimentality out of it and create a film which doesn't make the 'American spirit' or 'American dream' its main theme, a brilliantly refreshing surprise for such a film steeped in history and a President who is so engrained in the American psyche. Spielberg never once signposts or makes anything obvious, he assumes the audience's intelligence and the film is all the better for it.

The film is also wonderfully well paced, partly down to such a brilliant script by Munich screenwriter Tony Kushner. His use of language is expertly used, to re create the political forums of the era with precise American 19th century dialogue takes extreme skill, and Kushner does this superbly, offering a subtly intelligent yet understandable script.

Spielberg also manages to get the best out of his actors, in what is an incredibly complete performance from Daniel Day-Lewis. You simply cannot imagine another actor in the role after watching such an intense character study. Day-Lewis gets everything right to the tee, from the beard, to the voice, to the masterful oration to even his posture, Day-Lewis really knows how to pick his films. He plays Lincoln with utmost charm, hilarity, bravery, a sense of justice and humility, very much like the man himself. He not only brings an acute sense of simplicity to the role, but he manages to delve into Lincoln's complex character, whether its his grave guilt and despair over the deaths of two of his sons, or his sometimes exasperated relationship with his wife Mary, Day-Lewis is simply unmatched in this role and is surely the favourite for the Best Actor Oscar this February. 

Sally Field is brilliant as Lincoln's wife, Mary Todd. Again a very well deserved Oscar nomination for her. As Lincoln's only true confidant in the movie, she also has to bear the weight of Lincoln's absenteeism, to face criticisms of her husband's presidency unfairly aimed at her, as well as feeling the unfair weight of the guilt of the death of their sons. Her performance of a damaged, often disturbed yet resilient and truly loving first lady is the most emotive of all portrayals on screen. Yet she can certainly show a comic side as well as hold her own with the towering male politicians of the day, particularly in a scene at a White House reception where Thaddeus Stevens and other radicals confront her, Field's Mary is strong, smart and witty here, and you see why Lincoln so admires her. 

If it weren't for Daniel Day-Lewis, Tommy Lee Jones would have almost certainly stole the show with this supporting role as Republican radical Thaddeus Stevens. It's a delightfully under rated, yet fiery and spirited performance from Lee-Jones who consistently shows that he is still one the best actors in Hollywood. Despite his fiery temper and almost youthful and ideologic political opinions, Lee Jones also manages to portray Stevens as an elderly, sometimes broken man. You see Stevens' moral struggle to finally adopt and moderate his views in order to pass the 13th amendment. He is also handed some brilliant zingers from writer Tony Kushner, delivering them against his democrat rivals in embarrassingly brutal style. 

Other note worthy performances include Lee Pace's Fernando Wood in a spiteful portrayal. Probably one of the most least liked characters in the film with his confederate sympathies and distasteful racial opinions, Pace delivers his lines like a prejudice preacher, not stopping once to listen to others. David Strathairn's loyal yet embattled Secretary of State bring another great supporting role while Walton Goggins as the flip flopping yet nervously hilarious Wells A. Hutchins completes an all round excellent cast.

Lincoln can become dull at times, given its strongly 19th century heavy dialogue and long running time, it's understandable that the film can come across as more of a Friday afternoon history lesson as opposed to historic epic. But the film is so much more than that, it's a surprisingly intimate and personal story of one of the greatest democratic leaders of all time. It's much more of a political thriller, focusing on one of America's most embittered periods as opposed to a biopic. Some may have expected action and battlefield scenes given the Civil War era, but momentos speeches and beautiful oration are this film's explosions. With a stirring and Oscar deserving performance from Day-Lewis, Lincoln is a must see. 4.5/5